Stats On Winning Favourites
This horse racing system simply works by placing the same stakes ( i.e. £10 on each selection ) but it also has some rules, which are pretty straight forward to understand.
The amount of selections you bet on this horse racing system is determined by the odds of the favorite, I have placed a table of odds below for you to show how many selections can be bet upon.
All odds below are in decimals and are the odds of the Favourite in any given race.
Stats On Winning Favorites College Football
Odds of Favourite In decimals Bet On First
Between 3.00 & 4.00 2 Horses
Between 4.00 & 5.00 3 Horses
Statistics indicate that first and second favourites oblige a major part of the time. ‘Go with the flow’ is what some may call it but it is something you ought not to ignore. When you go by stats, first or second favourites win 51% of their races while those who are not win 49%. Most favourites are false favourites, as evidenced by the fact that only about three out of 10 of them actually win. No-one, unless he is satisfied with very small profits and operates a foolproof staking plan-backed by a huge betting bank-can ever hope to win by backing favourites. Get the latest NBA basketball news, scores, stats, standings, fantasy games, and more from ESPN.
Between 5.00 & 6.00 4 Horses
Between 6.00 & 7.00 5 Horses
Between 7.00 & 8.00 6 Horses
Let’s just imagine that the first race you wanted to have a bet in is the 2.10 @ Ascot. Simply navigate to that particular race at your chosen, betting exchange, bookmaker website or go down to your local bookies and take a look at the odds/prices that you are being offered.
Now for this horse racing system to work, let’s say for arguments sake that the favourite was being offered @ 5.3. Take a look at the above table and look for 5.3, there you will see that you are allowed to bet on the first 4 horses in the betting market i.e. 1st Favourite, 2nd favourite, 3rd favourite and 4th favourite, making a little more sense now??
The same goes for any price that the favourite has within the odds displayed in the table above.
This horse racing system, called “Level Stake” betting, has been around for “Donkey’s” years but not too many people actually do it, simply because the majority of punters are looking for a BIG win with every bet they place and to be honest they lose almost ALL the time.
Selections process for this horse racing system is very easy to do: if in your chosen race the favorite has odds of 3 at Betfair then you are allowed to place your stakes on the favorite and the second favorite in the betting.
If in this horse racing system you placed say £10 on each one, your total outgoings are £20. If the favorite were to win you would receive back £20 in winnings and your £10 stake money as well, so a total of £30.
If the second favorite were to win at odds of 5, then you would receive back £40 plus your £10 stake money back for a total of £50 return.
If you were to select a big race where the favorite was priced up at 7 on Betfair then you are allowed to place your stakes on the first 6 in the betting.
It is a very simple horse racing system, but highly effective and if done properly can make a very nice second income.
I have personally had winning bets of up to 25/1 although these are very few and far between it’s very nice when it happens.
Level Stakes betting can be used with nearly all races, with just a few exceptions which are listed below.
1. Do not bet in “Maiden” races. I find these to be very unpredictable and results can vary.
2. NEVER bet in handicap races with over 16 runners, again very unpredictable and there are always much better races to bet in.
3. Never bet in “Apprentice” races, although there are some pretty good apprentice jockeys around you WANT a pro jockey that knows exactly what it takes to win a race.
Another variation of the above horse racing system is to MISS OUT the favourite and use the second favourite as your stating point. This enables you to add more selections and get bigger priced winners.
If you copy how I make my selections below then you will be quids in week after week.
If you decide to place your level stake bets with the favourite included, then this horse racing system is straight forward enough as ANY race that meets the above criteria is fair game but if you wanted to narrow your search down and just find between 2 & 4 races per day to play in, then just copy the following to achieve a VERY high strike rate.
You will need any “run of the mill” newspaper ( I prefer “The Sun” ) that has racing pages in its sporting section.
Plus you will need to register yourself at the http://www.racingpost.co.uk website if you haven’t done already then go do it now, it doesn’t cost anything.
On racing day, to apply this horse racing system simply log onto the racing post website and go through ALL of that days racing, you must mark off ( in your newspaper ) the selection that the racing post gives as its most likely winner.
When you have done that you then look at what your newspaper’s two tipsters go for in that particular race. If ALL 3 ( 2 X newspaper tipsters plus racing post) select the same horse then that COULD be a definite bet. Then simply do this with the newspaper for ALL the races of the day. Don’t be put off at all, it takes about 10 minutes to do, not a lot of time for a horse racing system that could change your financial future.
Once you have done that you need to go to Betfair and simply check the odds for the horse that ALL 3 tipsters have given. If the odds are acceptable with the odds in the table then you have a definite bet and you stake on however many horses that the odds in the grid tell you to.
The other variation of this horse racing system is where you miss out the favourite all together and the selection process for this is much simple and quicker.
Simply miss out all the “Danger” races as described on the previous page then try to find races that have between 12 & 16 runners, especially handicap races because in handicap races horses are allotted different weights to carry, which in effect gives ALL horses the same chance of winning.
Then all you need to do for this horse racing system to work is to get the odds for the SECOND favourite and place your stake money down on as many selections as the table allows you to.
Now you know how easy it is to make your selections, you will now need to know how to make best use of your betting bank.
We will take a £1000 betting bank as an example but you can start with however much you can afford, this horse racing system works for everybody!
Simply divide your betting bank by 100, so for a £1000 bank this figure is £10. So £10 is the amount you should place on your first ever race.
Let’s now say that in your first race you can bet on the first 4 horses, you divide your first bet of £10 by 4, which equals £2.50, so £2.50 is the stake money that you place on the first 4 selections in your first race.
I can just hear you say “Hey, staking a mere £2.50 on a horse, this horse racing system is not going to make me rich!!”
Well, its not and is not meant to either, yet! You should look at this as a long term venture and protect your betting bank as best you can. Dividing your betting bank by 100 gives you 100 losing bets before you go bust and that just is not going to happen.
In the £2.50 example above if the favourite wins then you will win a level stake profit of £2.50 BUT if the favourite loses and an 8/1 shot wins, you will then pick up a nice £12.50 profit.
Then as the days go by your betting bank increases and then so does your initial stake money and soon instead of placing £2.50 on each horse you will find yourself placing £22.50 on each horse, I can see how you start enjoying this horse racing system now!
ABOUT THE AUTHOR: John Anthony is a recognized authority in the PRO gambling world. His worldwide famous Horse Racing System, the Sure2Profit Calculator PRO 1.8, has helped over 1,288 people making up to ?80,000 per year on Tax FREE profits.
Find out how to become one of them here:http://www.sure2profit.com/software.htm
When the betting odds indicate that a UFC fight is a mismatch, does that usually mean that it is? This article is written to prove that it does.
The goal of this article is to help influence profitable betting decisions. It succeeds by including data on how big favorites perform on fight totals.
What is a big favorite? A big favorite is when a fighter has odds of -300, or wider, to win. Therefore, in terms of percentages, a big favorite means that a fighter’s implied odds of winning are 75% or more.
What are fight totals? A fight total is a bet on whether a fight will end before or after a certain length of time (1.5 rounds, 2.5 rounds, 3.5 round, or 4.5 rounds).
Here are some questions that this post will answer:
1. How often does an under cash when the matchup has a big favorite?
2. How often does an under cash when the matchup doesn’t have a big favorite?
3. How much more likely is an under going to happen when the fight totals are set at 2.5 rounds instead of 1.5 rounds, when a matchup involves a big favorite?
4. Are female big favorites more likely to cash the under than females that are not big favorites?
5. How do all the divisions compare in fight total statistics, when it involves UFC matchups with a big favorite?
[RECOMMENDED ARTICLE: MMA Betting Checklist: 25 Questions to Accurately Predict Winners]
All of this analysis is solely concerned with data on the UFC promotion.
All UFC betting lines for over/unders (also known as fight totals) can be found at 5Dimes. However, these lines don’t come out until a few days before the start of an upcoming UFC event.
How often does an under cash when the matchup has a big favorite?
The quick answer is 49.1% (105/214). That statistic takes into account data from UFC Fight Night 111 to UFC Fight Night 147, which is the past 71 UFC events. So, about half of the time, a matchup with a big favorite will result in a finish before the lined fight total. This result includes the sum of all the over and under variations (1.5, 2.5, 3.5, 4.5 rounds).
What Percentage Of Odds On Favourites Win
What makes this statistic hold any value? What is value in this context? Value is when the probability of occurrence is greater than the implied odds specified from betting odds. The reason it holds value is because statistics are good for benchmarks. They help compute the trend of future probability by comparing the record of the past.
Ultimately, the value in knowing that big favorites cash the under 49.1% of the time is that you can use this information for future decisions. For example, the American odds for 49.1% is +104. Knowing that, I’ll be a lot more hesitant to bet an under that’s a -200.
How often does an under cash for UFC betting, when the matchup doesn’t have a big favorite?
To gain a better perspective of how big 49.1% is, let’s see what the other side of the coin reveals.
During the same span of UFC events (71), the under cashes 37.8% of the time, when fights don’t have big favorites. The under is 11.3% more likely to occur (win/cash) when a big favorite is involved. That’s enough to consider a big favorite more of a finishing threat.
Intuitively, this makes sense. The wider the perceived margin in skill by oddsmakers, the more likely that margin results in a stoppage win. In other words, more finishes will result in more under bets cashing.
Why is this statistic involving a 11.3% differential meaningful? If it’s possible to increase the chances for success in any endeavor by over 11%, why not take it? In UFC betting, you need every percent you can get. Every advantage equals more profit. Let me rephrase that, every statistical advantage equals more systematic profit.
“… every statistical advantage equals more systematic profit.”
Although the sample sizes are different, the point of this comparison is to see how big favorites and non-big favorites performed on fight totals during the same amount of UFC cards, not fights. The reason for that is there are only an average of 3.0 big favorites per card (214/71) compared to 9.0 non-big favorites per card (638/71).
If the sample sizes were to be the same, one would have to compare years of big favorites data to months of non-big favorite data. Because the sport has evolved so much over the past few years, the data would be less meaningful to compare a big favorite from 3 years ago to a non-big favorite from 3 months ago.
To derive even more value from the previous statistic, you can subtract these numbers by 100% to get how often the over cashes. So, the result on the over for non-big favorites is 62.2% (100.0-37.8).
Stats On Winning Favorites Florida Lottery
We now have a benchmark for the over and under for matchups with or without a big favorite, but how can we appraise different fight totals for value?
How much more likely is an under going to happen when the fight totals are set at 2.5 rounds instead of 1.5 rounds, when a matchup involves a big favorite?
The picture below describes how likely the over/under 1.5 rounds cashes compared to the 2.5 round prop. As you can see, it would be more financially responsible to bet the under 2.5 and the over 1.5, when a big favorite is facing a big underdog.
How do all the divisions compare in fight total statistics, when it involves UFC matchups with a big favorite?
As you can see, most data points don’t have a sample size worth attaching any meaning to. Since the past 71 UFC events has only had 214 big favorites, and there are 12 different divisions, there are not enough data points to go around.
Although these sample sizes are small, a few divisions have some telling statistics. In order to highlight them, I boxed the most noteworthy ones in red.
The over 1.5 rounds prop on UFC featherweight big favorites have won 7 out of the past 9 times. Knowing this, I would avoid betting the under 1.5 rounds prop when a matchup includes a featherweight big favorite.
Are female big favorites more likely to cash the under than females that are not big favorites?
Yes! From the same time frame used above (UFC Fight Night 111 to UFC Fight Night 147), there have been 33 UFC matchups with a female big favorite. Out of those 33 fights, the under cashed 17 times. That is a rate of 51.5%.
Now, how often does a bet on the under win when the female matchup doesn’t include a woman that’s a big favorite?
From UFC Fight Night 111 to UFC Fight Night 147, there have been 96 such matchups. From those 96 contests, only 23 of them payed out on the under. That is a minuscule rate of 24.0%.
I expect the gap between 51.5% and 24.0% to close as I log more female big favorite matchups, but I see the statistical advantage to continue to exist.
What makes these statistics impressive and potentially lucrative is that oddsmakers and UFC bettors expect the majority of female matchups to go to decision. Because of this expectation, the betting odds that a female UFC fight will make it under the designated fight total are usually around +200.
There is a lot of value on a +200, if the probability of occurrence has historically averaged to be 51.5%. So, make sure to take advantage of those opportunities!
Summary
Here is a quick rundown of what I described in this UFC betting article: